AIREF gives oxygen to the government and puts GDP at 0.7% in the fourth quarter
Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIREF) was one of them The first organizations to warn that Spain is on the verge of a technological recession, after chaining two consecutive negative quarters, albeit with a moderate decline in activity -far from the deep crises experienced in the past-. The Bank of Spain also warned of this risk last week, asking institutions to provide “adequate and timely” if this situation occurs in the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. For now, data collected by AIREF in the latest update of its Real-Time GDP Forecast Model (MIPred). Economic growth advanced by 0.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the third and 2.2% in interannual terms.
It is necessary to isolate this data, because at the moment the supervisory body does not have much information about the period – in fact, the last two indicators that it includes in its estimates are total sales and total remuneration, as well as deflated of large companies. In September -. Despite this, this information A Positive inertia giving more oxygen to the government in the last phase of the yearThe macroeconomic picture (the Bank of Spain or the European Commission calculates 4.5%) brings the forecast to close the year with an advance of more than 4.4%.
Last week, Brussels ranked Spain as the only major euro zone economy that will manage to avoid recession and, in any case, as the most dynamic between now and 2024. Less dependence on Russia, greater energy diversification and the massive influx of ‘next generation’ funds, inflation (10.8%) since peaking in July and a labor market that has resisted a recession well past crises will be behind this evolution. Positive
From now on, everything will depend on the situation in Europe not deteriorating, especially in the energy sector, which will force the European Central Bank to be more aggressive in its monetary policy and fill the horizon with dark clouds – the euro area. And Union Europe are the main markets for Spain. They calculate this from CaixaBank research A rise in interest rates will have its maximum impact in 2023 and will subtract about a percentage point from growth of the Spanish economy. Economists of the first Spanish entity by the number of assets also reject a technological slowdown in the country and instead point to stability.
In a preview of National Accounts data, the statistic put GDP at 0.2% despite the tourist season between July and September (data will be reviewed in December). Inflation (which reached its maximum annual rate in the summer), the energy crisis and the tightening of financial conditions, which had a profound effect on the pockets of consumers and the balance sheets of banks, kept the economy in a very complex situation. Despite this, demand from households increased by 1.1% in the height of the summer season, only a tenth less than in the second quarter of the year. Of course, the rise in prices has already forced many households to withdraw their savings accumulated during the Covid pandemic.
Even with the economy stagnating, jobs have survived
One of the features that makes this crisis special is that, although the economy has not yet recovered the level of growth before the outbreak of the disease, according to the organization led by Pablo Hernández de Cos, this will not happen before 2024. , the number of employed persons is increasing compared to 2019. Maria Jesus Fernández, an analyst at Funcas, highlighted in a recent blog published by the foundation that although there are 270,000 more public employees, private employment has also increased. A lot, which is also partly due to the rise of the underground economy.
In a budget plan document sent to Brussels, the government estimated that around 285,000 workers have joined the formal economy since the pandemic. If that figure is discounted, Fernandez points out, Yet there will be an increase to more than 270,000 associates, in the context of which there is also a shortage of specialized workers In more eligible areas and in less eligible areas. What experts confirm is that the adjustment, where it is being made, is basically in the number of hours worked, which would have been made possible by labor reforms approved by the executive.
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