CaixaBank and Santander do not see a slowdown in Spain, and BBVA believes it will be “small”.
Enric Fernandez, Director of CaixaBank Research, and Juan Cerruti, Chief Economist of Banco Santander, believe that rising inflation will not lead to an economic recession in Spain, and Director BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, believes there will be but it will be “small and much less intense”. He considered this during the session ‘Macroeconomics and Sanctions’ at the XXVII Economics Meeting in Castel-Platja d’Aro (Girona), in which former Minister and Professor of Economics Andreu Mas-Collel also participated. Domenech emphasized that both Europe and Spain “are not in recession” and believes they have shown themselves to be resilient. Economic consequences arising from geopolitical conflictAnd it sees a potential growth of one or two tenths of European GDP for next year if the EU takes time to enter recession, he said.
Sanctions against Russia for war
On the other hand, they have questioned the effects of sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union because of its start of war with Ukraine. According to Fernandez “They are already remarkable.”. A Caixabank expert pointed out that “it is still too early to judge whether the sanctions are effective”, and it is believed that arms shipments from Ukraine EU countries will have more influence than sanctions A possible end to the war in the short term.
For Domenech, the sanctions have shown it to be credible, adding that “the credibility and unity that Europe has shown has not only come as a surprise. to implement the sanctions but to comply with them“. But he has warned that these restrictions contribute to globalization, by making the European Union “Could face higher energy costs”Which can have long term negative effects.
Cerruti has confirmed that the approval has not failed but believes that “it would be too presumptuous to say that they have succeeded”, he has also assured that Sanctioning by itself will not solve the conflict. According to him, today’s sanctions shape tomorrow’s geopolitics, so they should be considered in perspective: “It is not a question of implementing the most effective sanctions today, but of finding the most geopolitically efficient. Tomorrow should”.
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