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Funcas predicts final rise in headline inflation in November


The Savings Bank Foundation (Funkas) wait Inflation increased in November And it is estimated that the annual average for this year It will be 8.6% and 2023, 4.7%. Average rates for the underlying index will be 5.1% and 4% this year and next, respectively. Thus, under intermediate forecast conditions, co Oil steady at $95 And the favorable evolution of Mibgas prices, Funkas predicts an increase in the general inflation rate in November. Close the year at 7.1% And start downwards from that moment.

According to figures confirmed by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) on Tuesday, CPI rose 0.3% in OctoberThis is lower than the 1.8% growth recorded in the same month last year, which reduced the inflation rate to 1.6 percent. up to 7.3%. Core inflation remained steady at 6.2%.

As explained by the foundation in a statement, the general index result, lower than expected, due to a Step effect on energy production, their prices have come down significantly. In particular, the rate of energy inflation has decreased from 22.4% to 8%. The step effect is particularly noticeable on electricity, as its price increased by 10% in October last year, while this year it has decreased by 22.5%.

Overall, Funcas’ central scenario is that inflation closes the year at 7.1%, Starting from that moment downwards. The annual average for this year will be 8.6% and 4.7% for 2023, while the average rates for the underlying index will be 5.1% and 4% this year and next, respectively.

In an alternative scenario in which gas prices exceed a 20% discount to futures, Funcas proposes that the interannual growth rates of general and core CPI in 2023 will remain at 5.4% and 4.4% respectively. In another scenario in which gas prices were 15% lower, these rates would be 4% and 3.7%, respectively.

Source: lainformacion.com

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