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Funcas predicts final rise in headline inflation in November

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The Savings Bank Foundation (Funkas) wait Inflation increased in November And it is estimated that the annual average for this year It will be 8.6% and 2023, 4.7%. Average rates for the underlying index will be 5.1% and 4% this year and next, respectively. Thus, under intermediate forecast conditions, co Oil steady at $95 And the favorable evolution of Mibgas prices, Funkas predicts an increase in the general inflation rate in November. Close the year at 7.1% And start downwards from that moment.

According to figures confirmed by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) on Tuesday, CPI rose 0.3% in OctoberThis is lower than the 1.8% growth recorded in the same month last year, which reduced the inflation rate to 1.6 percent. up to 7.3%. Core inflation remained steady at 6.2%.

As explained by the foundation in a statement, the general index result, lower than expected, due to a Step effect on energy production, their prices have come down significantly. In particular, the rate of energy inflation has decreased from 22.4% to 8%. The step effect is particularly noticeable on electricity, as its price increased by 10% in October last year, while this year it has decreased by 22.5%.

Overall, Funcas’ central scenario is that inflation closes the year at 7.1%, Starting from that moment downwards. The annual average for this year will be 8.6% and 4.7% for 2023, while the average rates for the underlying index will be 5.1% and 4% this year and next, respectively.

In an alternative scenario in which gas prices exceed a 20% discount to futures, Funcas proposes that the interannual growth rates of general and core CPI in 2023 will remain at 5.4% and 4.4% respectively. In another scenario in which gas prices were 15% lower, these rates would be 4% and 3.7%, respectively.

Source: lainformacion.com

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