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GDP expected to be “almost stable” in January by the Banque de France

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Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) would reach 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, with a “slight increase in December”, the Banque de France said on Wednesday in its monthly economic note. Growth should then become “virtually stable” in January 2023. “Resilience is confirmed and even prolonged”, underlined the Director General of the Banque de France, Olivier Garnier, during a press briefing.

Growth of 2.6% over the year?

For the whole of 2022, the Banque de France confirmed its forecast of growth of 2.6% (compared to 2.5% for INSEE and 2.7% for the government), before a sharp decline in 2023, to +0.3% according to its main scenario. But there are still “a lot of uncertainties weighing on the first quarter”, noted Olivier Garnier. A “limited and temporary” recession is not excluded by the institution.
In the medium term, the Banque de France expects an economic cycle with three “Rs”: resilience, slowdown and recovery from 2024.
In detail, activity continued to grow in December in industry, services and construction, more strongly than expected the previous month, according to the results of the latest monthly survey carried out by the central bank among 8,500 entrepreneurs between December 20 and January 5.
In January, activity should progress a little in services and industry, with, however, strong sectoral disparities: decline in clothing or rubber-plastic in particular, and rise in pharmaceuticals, automobiles or aeronautics. She would be stable in the building.

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